[He keeps the video on; it's simpler, for one, and it's- well. A little faster, even if it means Luke gets exposed to Hawk's thinking process, which involves more gesturing than is strictly called for.]

Ah- twelve and twelve, that's even, so that means you've got an even chance of picking a red sock and a blue sock. And the more red socks you pick up, the greater the chance there is the next one will be a blue one- so after about six, I think you'd have a good chance of having a blue pair.

But you asked for absolute certainty! So- if you wanted to be absolutely sure- you'd take twelve, in case you were unlucky enough to pick all the red ones first, and then two more. You'd have to have a pair of blue socks then!